Aug 31, 2011

DAY 91

TD#12 has evolved into Tropical Storm Katia today. She is only at 38W, and is already a very organized tropical system. Katia is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and then a major hurricane by the weekend.

(Tropical Storm Katia)

There is a very strong computer model consensus that is pulling Katia on a more northward heading for the rest of the week. There are 2 reasons for this. The Subtropical Ridge has recessed far to the north and another trough sweep is forecast to move off the US coast. There is a very good chance that Katia only effects Bermuda.

Just like always though, the forecast error is fairly large that far in advance. This track could change in either direction as the week goes on. The UKMET and the Navy's NOGAPS model are forecasting a bit of a more southward track. It should be noted however that these models have not performed as well as the other models. The NOGAPS model has Katia scraping by the Virgin Islands in 5 days.

(NOGAPS run on Katia)

The National Hurricane Center has also circled an area in the Caribbean, in today's Tropical Weather Outlook. This area has become very wet and active recently. There is a tropical wave inside that yellow circle that is moving into an area that the monsoon trough has been working all season, and there is also an area of mid to upper level vorticity that was a piece that split away from a front that passed through Florida a couple of days ago. This area will linger and fester for several days. The GFS and the European model are developing this into a tropical system as it moves into the Gulf. This area will be in a race with the next African wave to become the "L" storm Lee.

(Possible Invest Area)

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