Aug 6, 2011

DAY 67

Emily is back. At 5pm eastern, she was upgraded to a tropical depression and given her name back. She is still the same old struggling tropical system though. Still visibly unimpressive.

A recon mission today found a low pressure of 1011 mb just to the north of Grand Bahama Island. The cyclonic turning of Emily can be seen on radar now. This is her mid level circulation. According to recon, the surface circulation is to the north of this mass.

Emily may move a bit further to the north and then take a right turn and move out to sea. The low level mean stirring layer is strong to the northeast now. The NHC track and the models are moving her in this direction too.

Emily has also got a good chance to become a tropical storm again. The Hurricane Center is forecasting this to take place tomorrow afternoon. Some of the other intensity models also bring her to tropical storm strength tomorrow. The only one that doesn't is the GFDL. That model seems to have had a better grasp on Emily to this point. But once she turns to the northeast and stops going against the grain, she will have a brief opportunity to strengthen before running into some cooler sea surface temperatures.

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