Aug 6, 2011

DAY 66

The focus for today is the remnants of Emily and whether or not it will redevelop. The probability of that happening is actually pretty high. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 70% chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. The environment around the Bahamas is gradually becoming more favorable with moist air, and low shear.

A look at the visible satellite image just before the sun went down shows a massive area of convection between Cuba and the Bahamas. There is probably not a closed circulation under there yet though. The NHC didn't think so either, as they cancelled the Hurricane Hunter mission for today. The surface vorticity is still quite broad. If you base an estimate on the history of this storm, the low is likely trying to form just to the northwest of that convection. Convection due to landmass heating could also be cluttering this image.

Follow the history of circulation with Emily in this Precipitable Water loop below. You can clearly see that there is still a spinning component to this storm. Looks to me like it's located over top of Andros Island in the Bahamas. Also notice how it makes a due north move after crossing Cuba. It is moving towards the weakness that was carved out by that trough.

Many of the forecast models do redevelop Emily and continue to take her to the north through the Bahamas, and then east out to sea. This is the most likely solution. However, the Bermuda High is starting ridge back in to the west. If you look below at the 700-850 mb mean steering layer, there is a path to the west as well. Storms will usually take the path of least resistance which is to the the northeast in this case. But it could get a little nudge to the west as well.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are some pretty vigorous African Waves in the Atlantic. Just a reminder that it is August and we need to watch these things. Long range global models are enthusiastic about the wave that just came off of Africa.

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