Aug 30, 2011

DAY 90

Irene is now gone, but the US coastline is still dealing with flooding problems from North Carolina, all the way up to Vermont. Jose was a short lived storm that had no impact on land. So now we are left with Tropical Depression #12. It formed this morning and is on the verge of becoming Tropical Storm Katia.

(Tropical Depression #12)

It's got to be a little unnerving for Outer Banks residents to have another tropical system pointed right at them. This system is forecast to move across the Atlantic to the WNW and then take a turn to the north. There is a strong model concensus on this guidance. One thing to note about TD #12 is it's very low latitude. It is located south of 10N right now, so even a WNW heading would take it pretty close to the Windward Islands.

There have been what seems to be an unusual amount of deep digging and frequent troughs being swept down from Canada this season. These will continue to protect the southeast from landfalls. It will take just the right timing for a tropical system to creep in and effect Florida, another sweeping coastal storm is a bit more likely with this set up.

The more tropical waves that get launched off of Africa, the better the probability of one of those waves sneaking into the lower latitudes. And the Saharan coast is loading up another wave. This one is also being developed by forecast models.

(Left: TD#12, Right: New African Wave)

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