Aug 14, 2011

DAY 75

Tropical Storm Gert formed today in the open Atlantic. That is the system that broke away from Tropical Storm Emily. She has built up her maximum sustained winds to 45 mph and has a pressure of 1008 mb.

(Tropical Storm Gert)

It is moving slowly to the NNW at 8 mph, but is expected to turn more to the north and then out to the east. Gert is expected to pass just to the east of Bermuda tomorrow afternoon. I don't think anyone in Bermuda will be too worried about this one though, in fact they like these little storms out there because there is no fresh water source on the island. Rain is it for those folks.

Gert does have an outside chance to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season, though the odds are stacked against her. NHC is not forecasting Gert to become a hurricane, mostly due to some moderate shear to the west of the storm. However, in the visible loop below there is evidence of Gert sucking energy away from Invest 92L just to the south of her. If 92L surrenders that energy without a fight, Gert could actually grow stronger. Either way, we are probably witnessing the demise of 92L. The Hurricane Center still gives 92L a 30% of become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

(TS Gert Eating Invest 92L)

There are a few other areas of interest out there, but the only one worth mentioning at the moment is the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands. This is what used to be known as Invest 93L. That's it down there at the bottom of this image. That dark blue area in front of it surrounding the Lesser Antilles is very dry air. Surprise, surprise right? The burst of convection that X-93L was displaying throughout the day got zapped right out of it again. This system will keep trying to fire up as it continues on a due west course into the Caribbean.

(Top to Bottom: TS Gert, Invest 92L, X-Invest 93L)

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