Aug 16, 2011

DAY 77

Invest 93L is located in the Caribbean Sea, south of the Island of Hispaniola. It is generating a lot of thunderstorms in a large area stretching all the way back to the Windward Islands. It is showing signs of some gradually organization, but visibly 93L is still a mess. The National Hurricane Center is not impressed, they are giving 93L only a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

(Invest 93L)
93L is expected to continue on a due west heading for now. The low level mean steering map below shows a weakness between 2 ridges to the north, right about where Florida is. The problem is that 93L is locked into a very strong Easterly current which has been know throughout history as the 'Tradewinds'. The area between the Windward Islands and about the central Caribbean is typically a strong area of the easterly Tradewinds. That's why it's been booking it across that region at 15-20 mph.

The forecast models are coming into agreement on a westward track into the Yucatan Peninsula. There is still no surface circulation visible yet, so guidance still could change once that is established. A recon mission might fly in there tomorrow if 93L shows any signs of strengthening.

Gert has been downgraded to a depression in the north Atlantic. She never did make it to be a hurricane. So now our first 7 named storms have gone away with no hurricane. That is a first for the Atlantic Basin. Gert is still listed as having sustained winds of 40 mph. She is forecast to pass directly over the watery grave of the RMS Titanic tomorrow morning, and then dissipate.

(Post-Tropical Storm Gert in the North Atlantic)

Out in the Pacific by the way, Tropical Storm Fernanda has a decent shot at becoming a Hurricane this week. If that does happen, the Pacific will be 6 for 6. So far all 5 named storms out there have become hurricanes. The Atlantic is 0 for 7.

(Tropical Storm Fernanda in the Pacific)
Back in the Atlantic Basin, we have reached the peak of hurricane season. Africa is starting to lob tropical waves at us about every 3 or 4 days. The latest wave is just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and the global computer models are having a field day with this one. Of course they did the same thing with 93L, so we'll wait and see on this one.

(Tropical Waves coming off of Africa)

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