Aug 20, 2011

DAY 80

Invest 93L became Tropical Depression #8 at about 12am, and then Tropical Storm Harvey this afternoon. It is  scrapping up against the northern coast of Honduras tonight. As of 11pm eastern, Harvey had dropped his minimum pressure to 994 mb and had a maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. He is about 200 miles from making landfall in Belize and there is still an outside chance of becoming a hurricane when it hits tomorrow evening. In fact, NHC is forecasting Harvey to reach hurricane status at landfall.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the coast of Belize and the northern coast of Honduras. I don't believe they will call it a landfall in Honduras since the center of circulation never did quite make it on to land. They are likely experiencing some locally heavy rain in Honduras and 20 to 30 mph sustained winds. The majority of the strong winds are in the northwest quadrant of the storm. Roatan and Guanaja Island are probably getting tropical storm force winds. Harvey will make landfall in Belize as a stronger storm tomorrow evening.

(Tropical Storm Harvey)

Invest 97L is progressing nicely. It is 600 miles from the Lesser Antilles and should bring some impact to those islands sometime tomorrow night. It is showing signs of organization despite being surrounded by dry air. The Hurricane Center is now giving it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

(Invest 97L Water Vapor)

The forecast models are still in agreement with a track across the Leeward Islands and into south Florida. The good news for those in this path is that it is forecast to remain a very weak storm. Most of the models keep it as a Cat 1 hurricane for its trip through the Antilles Islands. It is projected to take the worst possible course through the Caribbean for a hurricane, which is long-ways over Hispaniola and Cuba. If it stays down, and then cuts up to the north more sharply, that's when you really got to watch out for trouble. Now with favorable conditions ahead, 97L is likely to become or next named storm which would be Irene.

Invest 98L has been given a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. A very large scale circulation was evident with 98L throughout the day today. It has a lot of consolidating to do and dry unfavorable conditions to to that ahead. It is still moving on a WNW heading at 15-20 mph.

(Invest 98L)

Out in front of 98L, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed and has been designated 99L. It may have formed out of the Intertropical Convergence Zone or maybe a piece of an African wave. I'm not really sure though, it kinda came out of nowhere. The National Hurricane Center has not yet acknowledged this area in its Tropical Weather Outlook, but global forecast models have been developing this spot as a tropical cyclone, so they may have to add it to their list of circles.

(Invest 99L)

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