Aug 12, 2011

DAY 72

A tale of two Invests. The first, 92L is having a very rough time with some dry air out in front of it. It has lost that tight surface circulation that it was displaying yesterday, and has become a very broad low. The other Invest is 93L which is located to the southeast of 92L near the Cape Verde Islands. This Invest is a little better looking, but it also has a lack of spin to it. The Hurricane Center is giving them both a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

If you look at their heading in the loops below, you can see that 92L has a bit more of a west-northwest track to it. While 93L in more due west. They are both moving at about the same speed, 15-20 mph.

(Invest 92L)
(Invest 93L)
As far as the guidance goes with these two, all I can say right now is that they will continue to move generally to the west for a least the next couple of days. After that it's still pretty much up in the air. The computer forecast models have been smokin some crack lately, with very erratic results from run to run. On some runs both Invests are developed, and then both are dissipated. Another run will guide them into the US and another run the will re-curve. One run of the GFS even showed two hurricanes hitting the US at the same time. So clearly the models are not relieable with these 2 Invests just yet.

(Model Tracks for 92L)
(Model Tracks for 93L)

Just going with the highest probability and the most consistent model showings so far. Both systems do develop, and both system do come very close to the US.  It all hinges on the timing and strength of a trough that is forecast to move into the eastern US later this week. So we will continue to watch these things closely.

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