The system that we've been watching off the US east coast was given the designation of 95L this morning and then became Tropical Depression #6 at 5pm eastern. The image below of TD #6 shows a very nice spiral and some banding features as well. This system appears to have broken away from the front that was towing it and has become warm cored, now drawing it's energy from the ocean. It is moving away from the US to the NNE at a brisk pace of 22 mph. This means it has just about 24 to 36 hours to take advantage of warm ocean territory. It is forecast to become our next name storm tomorrow morning. If that happens it will be called Franklin.
|(Tropical Depression #6)|
The models are starting to remain consistent with a re-curve solution for 92L. The GFDL doesn't even develop this system in its latest run. I'm starting to gain confidence in this guidance, but without a precise surface circulation to latch on to yet, a track that goes further to the west can't be ruled out.
And then there's 93L. That's the African wave furthest out right now. It has no surface circulation yet either, and the convection around this system has died down quite a bit. It really looks like it's struggling right now. It continues to move west at 15-20 mph and will be approaching the Windward Islands in about 4 or 5 days.
Despite the appearance of 93L right now, it will have the highest probability of affecting the Caribbean, the US, and or Mexico because of it's location and heading. It still has some low latitude, only 11.6 degrees north. The forecast for 93L is for it stay pinned below a building ridge and continue on its current heading toward the Windward Islands. And then possibly enter the Caribbean. That's still a long way out though. NHC is only giving it a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.