Aug 13, 2011

DAY 73

All four areas of interest are still out there in the Atlantic. All of them have some decent spin to them and have organized quite a bit today. Except for 93L, the one farthest away from the US right now. That storm is still struggling a bit, but it is still expected to become the biggest player of all these areas.

The system that we've been watching off the US east coast was given the designation of 95L this morning and then became Tropical Depression #6 at 5pm eastern. The image below of TD #6 shows a very nice spiral and some banding features as well. This system appears to have broken away from the front that was towing it and has become warm cored, now drawing it's energy from the ocean. It is  moving away from the US to the NNE at a brisk pace of 22 mph. This means it has just about 24 to 36 hours to take advantage of warm ocean territory. It is forecast to become our next name storm tomorrow morning. If that happens it will be called Franklin.

(Tropical Depression #6)
There is also an area of low pressure in the central Atlantic. On the map at the top of the page it is listed as area #3. That has been given the designation of 94L and has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. This section actually broke away from the remnants of Emily, so if it develops I think we should call it Junior. But the Hurricane Center will recognize this as its own entity and give it its own name if it develops. Most of the forecast models do develop this into a named storm, but it will likely take another day or so to do so. Right now it is slowly moving to the WNW towards New England. It will start to make a turn and head back east to where its mother Emily went. Once it turns, it will have a chance to organize stronger.

(Invest 94L)
The two areas that are getting the most attention though are the 2 African waves. And deservingly so, because they are the ones that are headed for the United States. First in line is Invest 92L. It is about 1000 miles from the Windward Islands and moving west and slightly northwest. There is a broad mid-level circulation to it, but still no surface action. NHC giving it a 40% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

(Invest 92L)

The models are starting to remain consistent with a re-curve solution for 92L. The GFDL doesn't even develop this system in its latest run. I'm starting to gain confidence in this guidance, but without a precise surface circulation to latch on to yet, a track that goes further to the west can't be ruled out.

And then there's 93L. That's the African wave furthest out right now. It has no surface circulation yet either, and the convection around this system has died down quite a bit. It really looks like it's struggling right now. It continues to move west at 15-20 mph and will be approaching the Windward Islands in about 4 or 5 days.

(Invest 93L)

Despite the appearance of 93L right now, it will have the highest probability of affecting the Caribbean, the US, and or Mexico because of it's location and heading.   It still has some low latitude, only 11.6 degrees north. The forecast for 93L is for it stay pinned below a building ridge and continue on its current heading toward the Windward Islands. And then possibly enter the Caribbean. That's still a long way out though. NHC is only giving it a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

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