Aug 19, 2011

DAY 79

Invest 93L looks a lot like a tropical depression tonight, but it remains just an Invest. Mostly because the recon flight for today was cancelled due to a mechanical issue on the airplane. Without that data, NHC was reluctant to classify this storm as a depression. From the satellite loop, 93L  does appear to be consolidated enough with its circulation to assume that a closed surface circulation does exist.

Another reason that NHC did not pull the trigger on 93L today, was the surface vorticity scans. If a tropical cyclone does exist, this scan would show a smaller circular shaped area in the vicinity of the thunderstorms. Instead, there is an elongated area extending far south of the storms. 93L is still struggling to drop its spin to the surface. NHC may declare this by 2 or 8 am, and wait for tomorrows recon to decide if it's Tropical Storm Harvey.

Invest 93L will come close to Honduras tonight, just scrapping the northern coast. The models are a little wild due to 93L's lack of identity. But it will continue to head generally west for a couple more days. It could become a tropical cyclone at anytime as it makes its way to Belize.

Invest 97L was declared today from that tropical wave we've been watching. Still doesn't look like much. It is moving west at 15 mph and has about 1200 miles to go before it reaches the Windward Islands.

The Hurricane Center is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. It might be a little early to start the hype, but the forecast models are hypin this thing up. They're all pointing at a hurricane possibly entering the Gulf or even hitting Florida in about 7 days. This will likely change a lot over the next few days.

There is also an Invest 98L now. It just emerged off the coast of Africa and already the Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% chance to develop in the next 48 hours. This is mostly due to its projected course. It is generally pointed on a more NNW course for now.

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