Aug 11, 2011

DAY 71

A lot of circles on the Two. The National Hurricane Center's Two Day Outlook has 4 circles on it, as of their 8pm posting. One is not so much a circle as it is a jelly bean. That's the one over the Florida Peninsula. One is the remnants of Emily, and the other 2 out near Africa are fresh new tropical waves.

The blob that has been hanging out over Florida for the past couple of days is a stalled out trough. This will continue to move off to the NE into the Atlantic. Some of the global models have shown some development of this feature once it does reach the open ocean. The NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

The remnants of Emily is still alive out in the north Atlantic. The swirl is still clearly visible and the thunderstorm activity has now moved up to cover the east side of the storm. That is an indication that its not quite ready to fade out, however it is entering cooler and cooler sea-surface temperatures. NHC is giving it a 10% chance as well.

Next up we have Invest 92L. It is still progressing nicely across the Atlantic. NHC is giving it a 30% chance of become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. On this cool water vapor loop you can see 92L forcing its way into some dry air. It looks as though its actually pushing it back. Other than that dry air, there are no other real hindrances to this storm. The sea surface temps below it are just on the threshold of favorability at 80 degrees.

It is way to early to start speculating on a US landfall, but we all know that that is where these things are generally headed initially. The early indications are that this storm will swing away from the US as it approaches. There is another trough that is forecast to move down from the northeast US and give this storm an escape route to the north. The forecast models are picking up on this as they are all in re-curve mode at the moment. The atmosphere can change in a flash though. That trough could flatten out quicker allowing the ridge over the Atlantic to strengthen and keep 92L down and guide it into the States. Another thing that works against its US landfall possibilities is its bad latitude. 92L is already up to almost 13 degrees north. If it stays on this heading it will miss the Caribbean entirely.

There is also 93L now. It was designated at the 8pm outlook from NHC. It just came off of the African coast and is already spinning. This system actually has a lot more going for it. First of all, it's got its 'fullback' out in front of it. 92L is kinda clearing out some of that nasty dry air and Saharan particles that lies in the way. It also has a starting point that is much further south than 92L. And lastly, its got better timing on its side. The Bermuda High is forecast to be building back in and setting up for a path that keeps 93L to the south for much longer.

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