Aug 4, 2011

DAY 64

Early today we got a good look at Emily's surface circulation. It came at the expense of some northwesterly wind shear that pushed all the convection to the south and east of the center. You can also see in this visible satellite loop that Emily spent most of the day traveling due west instead of northwest like the Hurricane Center was forecasting.

As of the 11pm advisory from the NHC, Emily had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and a pressure of 1004 mb. That is just a little bit stronger than she was a this time last night, but still a very weak tropical storm. She is still forecast to make that right hook, but as of right now she still has not made much of a move to the north yet. She actually has only gone .9 degrees to the north since 11pm last night.

Emily's forward motion has stalled out a bit. The storm is only moving at 5 mph now, but is expected to make landfall on Hispaniola, probably Haiti, within the next 12 hours. The impact with land will likely disrupt Emily quite a bit, possibly even reducing her to a depression. Then it's off to the north-west towards Florida. It is reasonable to say that the farther west she goes before making the turn to the north, the more likely she is to impact the Florida peninsula.

Emily will continue to encounter dry air and periodic upper level wind shear until she gets out of the Caribbean. And yes there is still some mystery concerning the future of this storm. Although the trough that is forecast to carve out a valley for Emily to follow to the north has dug itself deep into the south all the way to the bottom of Florida. So her northward move is still eminent. Yet at this moment, she continues to defy her forecast and move mostly westward.

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