Aug 1, 2011

DAY 62

On the first day of August, Tropical Storm Emily was classified by the National Hurricane Center at 8pm EST. Still not a great looking system but a Hurricane Hunter recon mission did find a closed center of circulation and surface winds of 40 mph. It's tough to make out the circulation on satellite imagery, but according to the NHC the center is located just west of the Island of Dominica in the Lesser Antilles. That would mean that most of the convection is east of the center.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. They also were issued for Guadeloupe and Dominica, but by the time those warning were issued, Emily was already upon those islands. The forecast track from the NHC takes Emily into the Dominican Republic sometime on Wednesday as a tropical storm.

Due to Emily's track through the islands, she is going to have a difficult time achieving hurricane strength. That's not the only thing that is working against her future development. Below is a water vapor image that reveals a lot of dry air in the way. The brown stuff in the image over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic is very dry air.

According to current steering analysis, she does appear to be headed towards the Dominican Republic. All the forecast models bare that out. All of the models have also reached a consensus on the extended forecast as well. All except the GFDL that is, which takes the system due west and then dissipates it before impacting land. The other models are taking Emily up through the Bahamas and then hooking it out to sea near Cape Hatteras.

The reason for this model consensus, is a trough that is starting to sink down from the north Atlantic. If that continues to sink, it will create a gap in the Bermuda High and the Subtropical High over the continental US. You can see it for yourself on this Marine Forecast model below which is valid for Aug 3rd. The 1016 mb line is the bottom of the ridge receding away from the US. If this forecast verifies, it shows you the gap that Emily will make a run for.

With all that being said, the forecast models will change as the center of circulation becomes more defined. For right now, Emily is still headed due west. So we'll wait and see when it does start to make a more northerly move.

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