|(Hurricane Rina Microwave)|
What happens after she impacts the Yucatan is not yet clear. The NHC has now rounded out their forecast track a bit and guides Rina into the Florida Straights on Sunday. The 18z HWRF model has now joined the GFS in the solution that the incoming trough turns Rina back to the south. While the Navy and and the Canadian model still dissipate Rina over the Yucatan.
The GFDL is still sticking with a solution that brings Rina to south Florida as a Cat 1 hurricane. If Rina is somehow able to maintain hurricane strength as she moves into the Gulf, this scenario could play out. Maybe not as far north up the Florida Peninsula as the model shows, but maybe a Key West Scenario.
This is the Hurricane Wilma scenario. The water vapor image below is of Wilma making landfall on Cozumel as a Cat 4 in 2005. She then moved across the Yucatan mainland and turned to the northeast towards Florida. Note the same swath of dry air that exists today for Rina. The big difference is the size and intensity of the hurricane. Wilma was not going to be pushed around by a pesky front. The set up is similar though, and climate history should still play a role in creating a forecast. I'm not saying that Rina is going to explode, but I will never forget how surprised I was when I woke up on the morning of October 19th, 2005, and saw that Wilma went from Cat 1 to Cat 5. Wow.
|(Hurricane Wilma Water Vapor, 2005)|