Oct 15, 2011

DAY 136

The area of interest near the Yucatan Peninsula has not organized any today, but it is still churning up that spot. The National Hurricane Center has not named it an official tropical invest yet, but that is just a matter of time. They are giving this disturbance a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. It is a very broad low pressure region that has a lot of consolidating to do. There is no obvious center right now, the best guess would be somewhere in the vicinity of Belize. Land interaction will be a problem for this system. Not only for the actual low over land, but if it is in the waters just off the coast, a sea breeze circulation can battle it by raising surface pressure. This disturbance looks like it will have a rough go of it for a while, especially if it moves directly over the Yucatan.

Another area that is being mentioned tonight is also along the convergence zone. But this one is near the main part of the ITCZ near Africa. It is likely a wave that is interacting with the convergence zone. This system could be Invest 95L tomorrow, the NHC is giving it a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The environment is only marginally favorable for development due to some moderate upper level wind shear. Computer models are showing some development of both of these features, but not as far as developing into a tropical storm. 

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