Oct 23, 2011

DAY 145

Tropical Depression #18 has formed out of Invest 96L and it is on the verge of becoming Tropical Storm Rina. That should happen within the next 6 hours. The plume of convection is gradually beginning to align itself over the surface circulation. Conditions will remain moderately favorable for development until it either reaches the Yucatan Peninsula or the dry air in the Gulf of Mexico.

(Tropical Depression #18)
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting TD#18 to become Rina and then remain a tropical storm for the next 5 days before making landfall in the Yucatan. The forecast models seem to agree with this assessment. Most of the models are forecasting TD#18 to dissipate over the Yucatan as TS Rina, except the HWRF, which keeps it in tact as a trough sweeps it off to the northeast. Guidance is to the west right now but TD#18 is continuing to move to the NNW and appears to be wandering off course just a bit. If the track adjusts a bit further north, that would increase the chances of TD#18 surviving an impact with the landmass. 

Invest 97L is still alive tonight, but doesn't look much better today. The NHC is giving it a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. A couple of the computer models are showing some development of this Invest after it crosses the Antilles Islands. 

(Invest 97L)

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