Oct 27, 2011

DAY 149

Rina is making landfall right now in the Yucatan as a 60 mph tropical storm. Southerly shear has finally done some damage on Rina, removing her convection to the north of her center. This is good news for Mexico, as they will get far less rain than what was forecast, and less of a storm surge as well.

(Tropical Storm Rina)
Moisture from the tropical wave formerly known as Invest 97L has arrived to late for Rina. It may help her maintain tropical storm strength for a while. But there is a cold front digging in through the southern states and will soon deliver another punch to Rina. The Hurricane Center is still forecasting Rina to be pushed back to the south as a depression, and the computer models do support that solution.


If Rina doesn't try to do battle with that trough and moves south or stalls, she may be able to stay alive for several days. Maybe even make a second landfall on the Yucatan. A move to the northeast is unlikely now, and would spell disaster for Rina. It's hard to tell if her latest burst of convection is because she's getting a charge of moisture from the southeast, or if she's just taking advantage of the Diurnal Maximum. If it's the latter, than she may go into dissipation mode tomorrow morning. Most likely though, the NHC forecast is correct. The center of circulation appears to be catching back up with the convection and will be able to survive another day as a tropical storm just off the coast of Cancun.


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