|(Hurricane Rina on Microwave Satellite Image)|
There is still some decent among the models with the Navy model still forecasting a westward move over the Yucatan Peninsula, while the Canadian meanders Rina around and then dissipates her before she even reaches the landmass. These are unlikely scenarios, the first due to high pressure over the Yucatan, and the other due to the strength that Rina has already attained. The GFDL and the HWRF take Rina to the northeast in a more rounded fashion between Cancun and Cuba.
It is likely that Rina will be a strong hurricane on Thursday as she moves into the Yucatan landmass. There is a large swath of dry air to her north and west. There has not been much evidence of that air getting into Rina's core, but I assume that that will eventually happen. There is a surge of moisture from a tropical wave approaching quickly from the southeast. That could help supply Rina with additional water vapor. Otherwise that dry air, along with the timing of a cold front will eventually weaken Rina as she approaches the Florida Straights.
|(Hurricane Rina Water Vapor Loop)|