Oct 16, 2011

DAY 137

The disturbance in the Caribbean has now been designated Invest 95L, and is slowly trying to get its act together. It looks like the main low has moved over the Yucatan Peninsula and will not be able to further develop. It will either have to remain intact until it moves over the water again, or a new low will have to become the dominate circulation. Despite Invest 95L's lackadaisical posture, it is in a race to organize before getting yanked out of the Caribbean by the next trough. It is forecast to meander about the Yucatan for a few days and then be pulled up to the northeast. The forecast models are still not enthusiastic about developing Invest 95L into a tropical storm. But it does spell thunderstorm activity for the Yucatan area, central Caribbean islands and Florida for the next few days. South Florida will have the potential for some rotating thunderstorms and heavy downpours.

(Invest 95L)
The other feature out there is about 900 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands. It has not been designated an official invest, but a GOES floater has been assigned to watch the area, and it is even labeled "Invest" on NHC's satellite imagery page. It doesn't have a true identity to it anyway. It's just a poorly organized tropical wave that is drawing some energy from the ITCZ. Computer models are showing this wave to weakly wander westward with no major development. The NHC is only giving it a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

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