Oct 3, 2011

DAY 125

Ophelia was at tropical storm strength when she made landfall on Newfoundlands Avalon Peninsula. She brought wind gusts higher than 60 mph and 2 or more inches of rain, but only minor damage and flooding was reported. This was Newfoundlands second landfall of the season.

(Tropical Storm Ophelia making landfall in Newfoundland)
Tropical Storm Philippe continues to experience periods of strengthening. He hasn't had much of a problem lately creating convection, it's just been a matter of maintaining it. Philippe was up to 65 mph sustained after this little blowup shown below. But that convection has already died down, and Philippe will probably be lowered at the 11pm advisory if there is one. With Ophelia out of the picture, the next advisory might be at 2am.

(Tropical Storm Philippe)
The forecast for Philippe is to continue moving west for 1 more day, and then turn around and head back to the east. The NHC is forecasting Philippe to become a hurricane after he makes that turn, but it is possible that could happen tomorrow. The wind shear is starting to settle down a bit, still not ideal, but the next surge of convection by Philippe could put him over the top. There is some very dry air creeping in from the northeast though. That could be the deal-breaker for Philippe ever becoming a hurricane if it gets injected into the core. There is very good computer model support of Philippe becoming the 5th hurricane of the season.

(TS Philippe with wind shear overlay)

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