Nov 22, 2011

DAY 174

With just 9 days left in the 2011 Hurricane Season, Tammy is looming in the North Atlantic. A low pressure system has developed a very healthy surface circulation and has been designated Invest 99L. The National Hurricane Center in giving it a 60% chance of becoming a named sub-tropical system within the next 48 hours. The convection is being push off of the center by some strong southwesterly wind sheer at the moment. It is also about to move north of 30N, which means the water temperatures will no longer be favorable for development. Despite these adversaries, there is strong support from the computer models for 99L to at least develop in to Sub-Tropical Storm Tammy. The chance of this system actually transitioning into a tropical classification has got to be very low given the water temperatures out there. Invest 99L's best chance of development will probably be tomorrow. If it misses that chance, I figure that conditions will become far less favorable as it moves to the northeast.

(Invest 99L)

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