The National Hurricane Center has not changed their track except for the 5th day. They have now moved her away from Newfoundland. They did adjust their intensity forecast to keep Ophelia as a major hurricane for another day. They are only giving her a 5% chance of becoming a Cat 4 over the next 24 hours. But we all know that Ophelia is a storm that does whatever she wants, and she's
only 11 mph from Cat 4 status. I don't think she will defy her track forecast though, and make a surprise visit to Bermuda. As Ophelia passes to the east of the island, they will get brushed by that western edge of Ophelia. Which is the side that is being effected by dry air. The NHC is giving a Bermuda a less than 50% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds and a near 0% chance of hurricane force winds.
Tropical Storm Philippe is holding his own out there. He looks much better than he did yesterday. Despite some strong northwesterly shear, Philippe is staying together and creating quite a bit of convection. He is forecast to move northwest into a batch of even higher shear, so his chances of become a hurricane in the next 5 days are extremely low. Philippe's eventual turn to the north is become more evident tonight. Then NHC is forecasting that turn to begin on Tuesday. He may then have a slight chance of regaining strength like all the other storms did when they turned north.
|(Tropical Storm Philippe)|