Sep 22, 2011

DAY 114

Tropical Storm Ophelia has sustained winds of 50 mph and a central pressure of 1000 mb. Her stats were a little better throughout most of the day, but took a big hit tonight. Ophelia continues to be quite disheveled looking. The center of circulation has been fairly empty of convection for most of the day. Wind shear out of the northwest is forcing the thunderstorms to develop on the east side. Conditions will remain unfavorable, but Ophelia should be able to survive as a minimal tropical storm for a few days. Then like Maria, and Katia before her, Ophelia should be able to redevelop in the area of Bermuda

(Tropical Storm Ophelia)
Maria didn't look much different at this point in her life, and she went on to become a hurricane. I expect Ophelia to do the same in about 4 or 5 days when it approaches Bermuda. There is very strong model agreement with this and also with the direction of travel. The Hurricane Center's 5 day forecast cone keeps Ophelia at tropical storm strength through out that time period.

Invest 99L has been deactivated again, this time probably for the last time. It will likely dissipate over the Island of Hispaniola.

(Ex-Invest 99L)

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