Sep 22, 2011

DAY 113

Tropical Storm Ophelia was able to strengthen a bit today and now has 60 mph sustained winds and a pressure of 1000 mb. The wind shear from the northwest was more evident today as the surface circulation became visible with the convection mostly to the west.

The atmospheric conditions around Ophelia are not improving much, but she has continued to organize. That wind shear will continue to stunt her growth though, and Ophelia will likely not become a hurricane this week. The Hurricane Center is not forecasting Ophelia to become a hurricane over the next 5 days. She is forecast to start moving WNW in about 24 hours which will keep her north of all the Antilles Islands. The computer models have started to come into agreement now on this track.

Invest 99L was reactivated as it moved into the Leeward Islands today. It is not much of a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone, but the circulation of this surface low is impressive none the less. It showed signs yesterday of firing up some convection, but that didn't last. Heavy wind shear has kept this system pretty much void of convection.

(Invest 99L)
Invest 99L is moving mostly west towards Puerto Rico now. Some of the Islands that it passed over today had some gusty conditions with maybe even a sustained wind of 15-20 mph. But there is little rain accompanying this feature. Radar out of Puerto Rico tonight showed some light rain over the Virgin Islands, and you can even make out the circular nature in the rain bands. NHC is still giving it a near 0% chance of developing and no computer models are acknowledging this fore development.
(Radar for Invest 99L)

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