Sep 18, 2011

DAY 110

There a 3 tropical waves to keep an eye on in the Atlantic today. Starting from east to west, Invest 99L is the newest invest but furthest east of the 3. It is about 1000 miles from the Antilles Islands and headed west towards Puerto Rico. It is currently struggling with dry air a moderate to high wind shear. The Hurricane Center is giving it a 10% chance of becoming tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. It will take about 3 more days to reach the islands and none of the models are developing this feature into a tropical strom. But one of these front 2 waves has a very good chance to develop in the Caribbean by the weekend.

(Invest 99L)
The wave in the middle is Invest 98L. It has been given a 30% chance of becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours. You can see in the image below that it looks the best out of the 3 with more surface vorticity (orange circle) and convection. There is less dry air and wind shear in 98L's location. This is probably going to be the wave that will develop this weekend in just passed the Antilles Islands.

(Invest 98L)
 The 3rd  wave in this line is located just south of the Cape Verde Islands. It came off the coast of Africa yesterday and was designated Invest 97L. It has been temporarily deactivated today due to lack of organization, but it will be back soon. This is the system that the forecast models are developing into Ophelia is about 3 days. The models are also forecasting this system to move out on more of a northwest heading which would take it out into the north Atlantic away from land areas.

(East Atlantic IR)

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