Sep 17, 2011

DAY 109

There are 2 areas circled tonight on the National Hurricane Centers Tropical Weather Outlook. The wave that is further east was circled a couple days ago when in came off the African coast, and now it is back with a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. The trailing wave is Invest 97L. That wave has been given a 20% chance of developing.

As of 11pm tonight, it's actually the 1st wave that looks more active. It is producing a huge batch of convection, probably due to some interaction with the convergence zone down there. But it is the 2nd wave, 97L, that has a better chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, although most computer models are developing them both. We are still lagging just behind the pace of the record breaking 2005 season. Back in '05, Tropical Storm Philippe formed today September the 17th. Even though the models are developing 97L first, they are also keeping it a bit further to the north. The models are keeping the 1st wave much further south and could sneak into the Caribbean by the end of the week. If both of these systems develop and we get some sort of independent Caribbean develop by the end of the month, we will be right back on pace with 2005 with Ophelia, Philippe, and Rina. Rina replaced Rita which was the last storm of September 2005.

(African Easterly Waves)

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