But just when we thought it was time to hit the pause button on the tropics, we get some brand new systems to watch. Another tropical wave has emerged from the Saharan Desert and has been designated Invest 97L. The Hurricane Center is giving it a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. The computer models have also acknowledged this feature. The GFS and the CMC are showing development out of this before it reaches the Caribbean. The probability of this storm curving north out to sea are pretty high because the Subtropical Ridge is suffering frequent bombardment from troughs coming off of the North American Continent. The CMC and the GFS(below) are showing the development of 2 nearby tropical waves. The one to the west is 97L and is in re-curve position by day 6. But the other wave, if it doesn't get devoured by 97L, could sneak into the Caribbean in about 7 days. Which is exactly when we are expecting upward motion and lower surface pressures there.
|(GFS showing 2 Tropical Waves)|