|(Tropical Storm Maria)|
There are indications that the tropics are about to be reactivated. In particular, the Caribbean. All the global forecast models that predict long range sea level pressure tendencies, are forecasting a very strong and large high pressure system over the northeast US. The Navy's NOGAPS model is the model I've posted below, but the GFS and the Canadian look the same. That large scale subsidence in the north, promotes rising air in the south. This is quite frankly what preseason forecasts thought more of the season would look like. With rising air in the Caribbean again, sea level pressures will be on the rise. If a tropical wave, or a monsoon disturbance should form in a situation like this, we could see rapid intensification of a cyclone. You can see a closed circulation on this model run at 144 hours.