Sep 11, 2011

DAY 102

Tropical Storm Nate is just about 12 hours away from making landfall in Mexico to the north of Veracruz. Nate is a 65 mph tropical storm and might be out of time to become our 3rd hurricane of the season. It won't take much intensification to get there, but there just isn't much going on under the hood. Nate's visual presentation still looks pretty good, but as you can see from the microwave image below, he is lacking in very cold cloud tops. The dry air coming off of the continent is limiting thunderstorm activity.

(TS Nate Microwave Image)

Tropical Storm Maria doesn't look like she wants to be a hurricane either. She is still encountering wind shear and is only a 45 mph tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center is not forecasting her to become a hurricane at this point. Maria is now moving through the Lesser Antilles and will end up much further north than her forecast. It now looks like she will miss the Virgin Islands to the northeast, and then move out to open waters.

(Tropical Storm Maria)

The Hurricane Center has circled a new tropical wave in it's Tropical Weather Outlook tonight. Environmental conditions are not favorable for this system to develop right now. NHC is giving it a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. We will have to keep an eye on this system though if it is able to get into the Caribbean. It has not been identified as an official Invest. 

(Tropical Wave)

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