Jul 31, 2011

DAY 61

There will be no 'E' storm in July this season as Invest 91L was unable to strengthen and close off a circulation today. A lot of times when we are talking about an area of low pressure in the initial stages of development, you hear the word 'broad' talked about quite often. In 91L's case, the word is 'elongated'. You can see from the satellite that it stretches all the way from the Antilles to about 48W.

There is actually a separate low that developed out in front of 91L a little closer to the original wave axis. That low has created a blob of thunderstorms and has its own circulation to it. Anytime in the past that we have seen competing lows like this, it stalls development until one is enveloped by the other. This is good news for those in the Antilles Islands because it will not be able to develop into a strong tropical system before impact there.

Models do predict that the primary low will eventually develop into Tropical Storm Emily within the next 24 to 36 hours. NHC is giving it a 90% chance of doing so. For most of the day 91L was listed with a near 100% chance of developing. These models will likely change quite a bit still because there isn't even a closed center of circulation yet. All indications are that this thing will eventually curve back out into the ocean. The key is when will it be able to do that. The computer models are taking this storm right up to the doorstep of south Florida before the hook, tracking right over the Leeward Islands and the Bahamas. That is likely why they are not forecasting a major hurricane to develop.

(Hurricane Charley's Track in August 2004)
If this system is able to stay below the Leeward Islands, we could see a track similar to Hurricane Charley in August of 2004. There is actually a similar setup. There is a ridge of high pressure over the continental US that would help block Texas and the Gulf Coast, and there is a trough that is forecast to drop into the north Atlantic. Just like the trough that lured Charley back across Florida.

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