Jul 31, 2011

DAY 60

Invest 91L is very close to becoming a tropical depression, and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 90% chance of doing just that over the next 48 hours.  Late tonight it has lost some of its convection but that comes and goes with diurnal heating. It also looks like it has lost some of that spin that it has been exhibiting ever since it emerged from the African coast. But the low level vorticity is still there. There is still a little dry air and moderate shear around the system, but it is an environment that will allow 91L to continue to strengthen gradually.

Computer models are suggesting continual development as well. As for the guidance for 91L, there is an overwhelming consensus pointing towards the leeward Antilles. Its got a little more than 2 days before it gets there. That's probably not enough time to become a hurricane, but they will likely be dealing with a tropical storm there.

After that the models are all over the board. It is still far to early to make a call that far out. There is a higher probability as of right now that this storm will pull a Ralphy and curve out to see. But there is also several variables that could change these forecast tracks very quickly.

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