Jul 25, 2011

DAY 55

90L is still alive tonight although the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 0% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. That's a fancy way of saying it has no chance. NHC even dropped 90L from it's designation for most of the day but brought it back online around 10pm. Based on that fact, I believe that they might raise its development probability a little higher by 2am.

It's not that this thing is about dead, it's just that it will still be more than 2 days before we see any development. There are several reasons not to stop watching 90L, besides the fact that you never stop watching a tropical system approaching North America. Below is the latest scan of surface vorticity which shows some increase in spin at the surface for 90L. Anytime you see that, there is a possibility for further development.

Another reason is the current runs of the intensity models like the SHIP are showing 90L becoming a tropical storm in 72 hours. These model seem to often overstep their bounds but it does indicate that there is something still in the works with 90L.

The GFDL and HWRF models were not run during the day because of 90L losing its designation. I suspect that these models are being run now, so we can check those out in the morning. Otherwise, all the global models are showing nothing from 90L what so ever. This should also be taken into account when forecasting the future of 90L. I will say that the GFS and the NOGAPS models were showing nothing what so ever while Bret and Cindy were busy becoming tropical storms.

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