Jul 23, 2011

DAY 52

Bret is officially dead, Cindy is a depression and Dora is a minimal tropical storm. Invest 90L is the focus of the tropics at the moment. The Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

It has now reached the windward islands with the largest plume of convection over the island of Barbados. It is still a broad area of low pressure. A dominant low level center has not emerged yet however it continues to grow thunderstorms in the area.+

The models are not very enthused about this system at the moment. They've all kinda backed off except for the HWRF which develops a tropical storm once the waves makes it through the Caribbean and into the Gulf. It is a pocket of deep moisture within a very dry environment and until it takes on some kind of identity the model solutions will probably vary from run to run.

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