Jun 10, 2011


IT'S BACK.. 94L is back, sort of. It's back to being 94L. We've come to know this invest over the past several days as a tropical low that just can't pull it's act together. Satellite images show thunderstorm activity very far removed from the surface low. This is a result of 30 to 50 mph vertical shear.

The reason 94L has been placed back on the watch list is likely that wind shear is forecast to weaken in the next few days. This 72 hour upper wind profile shows the shear decreasing to a max of 30 mph in the region. This is still not favorable for tropical cyclone development, but it is less prohibitive than it has been. The width of that field is also much more narrow.

Whether or not 94L will be able to capitalize on this environment is yet to be seen. It may be able to deliver some much needed rain to Florida however. In order for this to happen, the low will have to move up into the Gulf of Mexico. The continued shear will keep the thunderstorm activity to the east as the low moves northward. The closer the low tracks to Florida, the less likely that Florida will receive any of it's rain. None of the model runs develop this feature and have this weak low track across the southern tip of Florida.

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