DAY 5

94L is still roughly located in the same position it has been for 3 days. It has gone through several thunderstorm cycles throughout the day, and the rotation around the low pressure center is very broad and very noticeable on satellite loops.

Water Vapor images show that the mid level is not as dry its been. This morning however, there was still a lot of dry air. In the satellite image below, you can see a massive outflow boundary as 94L spit out some cold dense air. I've pointed out where this air hit the ocean surface and formed Arc Clouds which rapidly spread out from the main convection after impacting the surface.

Persistent rain from 94L has taken it's toll on Jamaica. Emergency Management in Jamaica is reporting that the river Yallahs is flooding, several communities are flooded and several roadways are impassable. Also a local fisherman is lost at sea and presumed drowned after his boat overturned at Bob Marley Beach in Saint Andrew Parish. Another 
man was rescued from that boat. A flash flood warning is in effect until 5am.


The Hurricane Center is giving 94L a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Tuesday night. I won't be listing any model tracks or talking about steering in this blog until there is a tropical cyclone. There is a Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Mission scheduled for Monday afternoon.