Jun 5, 2011


93L dissipated shortly after making landfall in the Mexican State of Tamaulipas about 110 miles south of Brownsville, Texas this morning. The Rio Grande Valley, which was praying for any drop of rain from 93L, received not one drop. It remains along with most of Texas in a Severe Drought situation. 

Different story in Jamaica where all Parishes are under a Flash Flood Watch until 5am local time. 94L battled dry air entrainment all day long. It doesn't look any better today in fact it looks a little less organized. The National Hurricane Center has downgraded its chances of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours to 20%. It is currently showing a large flare up of storms over the eastern part of Jamaica.

It has remained fairly stationary and is forecast to remain so for another 24 hours. Dry air to its northwest continues to hamper development. And sometimes stationary storms tend to cause upwelling of cooler ocean water although I don't think that is as much an issue without low surface pressure and a tight center of circulation. 

There is also a tropical wave entering the Caribbean through the Lesser Antilles. We'll have to see how 94L reacts to this. Forecast models are showing 2 lows splitting away from the Windward Passage, this wave might have something to do with that.

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