Jun 3, 2011


93L has been nothing more than an empty spin for much of the day but it is still holding together. It will run aground in Northern Mexico sometime late tonight or early Saturday morning. It will likely bring breezy conditions and light rain to the areas just south of the Rio Grande.

The massive blob in the west-central Caribbean has now received the designation 94L and has grown a bit more organized today. It is showing convection close to the center of circulation which is just south of Jamaica.

Upper level westerly wind flow has let up a bit making the environment for development much more favorable. The Hurricane Center is currently giving it a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone over the next 48 hours. We'll have plenty of time to keep an eye on this thing because it is forecast to remain stationary for a couple of days. Thats bad news for Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba and the Caymans as they will likely receive heavy amounts of rain over the next 48 hours.

The dry patch seen in this water vapor image is the only thing really hindering it at the moment, besides the moderate level of sheer. The low is located in an area of the Caribbean know for rapid development. Just because it is early in the season, there is now reason to doubt that that could happen.

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