Jun 25, 2011

DAY 25

The pocket of convection off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras has now prompted the Hurricane Center to include it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The convection is being caused by a tropical wave that is interacting with an upper level trough. The winds from that trough are actually what's hindering this wave from developing at this point. Wind shear is forecast to become more favorable over the next couple of days. Another factor for the future of this system is it's proximity to land. If it does develop a surface circulation, it will have to be out over the open water to survive at such a young stage. The Hurricane Center is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

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There is a strange bit of coincidence with this system and the first storm of last year. On this very same day last year, a storm system at that same location received the designation of Tropical Depression #1. You can see from the satellite photo below how well developed this system was at this point. It was drawing energy from the Caribbean and from the Pacific side of Central America as well. Once it moved into the Bay of Campeche it become the first Hurricane of the season, Alex.

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