Jun 3, 2011


93L is now located North of the Yucatan and still looks to be a battered disturbance. Satellite loops show that it does still have a fairly tight surface circulation and its forward progress seems to have slowed quite a bit. However it is still battling the dry air that is currently situated in the Gulf which you can see in this water vapor image.  It also shows that it is being sheered on its southern section by a strong westerly current.

It looks like it will just barely survive long enough to make it to Mexico. The Hurricane Center is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone.

Meanwhile there is still a surface low spinning off the coast of Nicaragua. There is obvious sheering going on here as well as you can see the main thunderstorm activity is well removed to the east of the low. The models have changed their tune and now longer favor development of this system.

One other thing to mention tonight is another cluster of thunderstorms possibly moving into the Gulf stream. That is how 93L got its start. It came from much farther north though across New England.

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